Terça-Feira, 07 de Setembro de 2010

Monica Baumgarten de Bolle

ORIGINAL POST

Monica Baumgarten de Bolle
Título:

Bernanke, a Recessão, e o Gato que Continua Morto

16.03.09 4:32 pm
Para quem está vendo uma luz no fim do túnel em qualquer dado positivo, como a melhoria das vendas no varejo em janeiro e fevereiro e da confiança do consumidor americano em março, os dados da produção industrial divulgados hoje foram uma (nova) ducha de água fria. A atividade industrial americana contraiu 1,4% em fevereiro, depois da queda de 1,9% em janeiro. O resultado foi pior do que o esperado, o que significa que esta já é, de longe, a pior recessão dos últimos 15 anos.

Em meados de 2008, quando olhávamos para a evolução da atividade e da taxa de desemprego nos EUA, tínhamos a impressão de que a recessão seria mais suave do que as anteriores, em 1991 e 2001. Afinal, até julho de 2008, a queda da produção industrial e o aumento do desemprego haviam sido menos pronunciados do que nos últimos dois episódios recessivos. Isto incentivou a persistência dos cenários de recessão moderada e relativamente rápida que predominaram até o final do ano passado, apesar das evidências de que a crise financeira não estava sendo debelada. O aumento do desemprego, cuja rapidez surpreendeu até os mais pessimistas, e a retração da atividade industrial que já dura 11 meses, eliminaram as dúvidas sobre a profundidade da recessão. O atual episódio é o pior das últimas duas décadas, como se vê no gráfico abaixo.

Figura 1

Em uma entrevista extremamente lúcida e equilibrada para o programa 60 Minutes, Bernanke discorrreu sobre a crise e falou sobre as perspectivas de recuperação. Embora acredite que a economia possa já estar se recuperando a partir do ano que vem, o Presidente do Fed deixou claro que isso só ocorrerá se a crise bancária for resolvida. Bernanke mostrou-se cautelosamente otimista com os resultados dos esforços do Fed, declarando que as medidas adotadas para suprir as necessidades de crédito enquanto os bancos não retornam à normalidade estão surtindo alguns efeitos visíveis. Citou explicitamente a redução nas taxas de juros sobre os empréstimos imobiliários como evidência de que os programas do Fed estão aliviando as pressões de certos mercados. Disse também que o Fed não deixará que alguma instituição financeira sistemicamente importante quebre, afastando os fantasmas do Lehman Brothers que ainda assustam muitos investidores. Entretanto, para os ouvintes atentos, deixou nas entrelinhas que mais precisa ser feito, sobretudo em relação às instituições financeiras problemáticas. Segundo Bernanke, o Fed já iniciou os testes de estresse mencionados por Tim Geithner, Secretário do Tesouro, como parte fundamental do Plano de Estabilidade Financeira. O que não está claro é o que as autoridades americanas farão com os resultados, caso estes se revelem mais dramáticos do que se imagina.

Por enquanto, os mercados continuam comemorando as boas notícias do Citibank, cujas ações voltaram a valer mais do que o custo de sacar dinheiro no caixa eletrônico, do Bank of America e do JP Morgan, todos (aparentemente) com lucro nos primeiros dois meses do ano. No programa 60 Minutes, Bernanke afirmou que, por enquanto, as principais instituições financeiras americanas estão solventes. Mas a devastação na atividade industrial, que não poupou nenhum setor, é assustadora (figura 2). Nem mesmo o crescimento de 10,2% da indústria automobilística foi capaz de impedir a queda de 0,7% dos manufaturados registrada no mês. E o colapso do setor real provavelmente ainda não se refletiu inteiramente nos balanços dos bancos.

Figura 2

Os números indicam que ainda é muito cedo para declarar o fim, ou mesmo o “início do fim”, da crise. Na Grande Depressão foram duas vezes. E agora, quantas vezes será que o gato morto ainda vai pular?

Figura 3

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