Quinta-Feira, 09 de Setembro de 2010

Monica Baumgarten de Bolle

ORIGINAL POST

Monica Baumgarten de Bolle
Título:

Sinos, Apitos, Adoçantes, Chicotadas

23.03.09 6:55 pm
Finalmente foram revelados os detalhes do Public-Private Investment Fund, um dos pilares fundamentais do Plano de Estabilidade Financeira anunciado por Tim Geithner em meados de fevereiro. Depois da longa e decepcionante espera, os mercados reagiram euforicamente às intenções das autoridades de prover vultuosos subsídios para a compra de ativos podres das instituições financeiras. Pela primeira vez nos últimos 20 meses, a possibilidade de limpar os balanços dos bancos é mais do que um desejo inalcançável, o que justifica a reação dos investidores. Contudo, o novo plano, repleto de sinos, apitos, adoçantes, e chicotadas, ainda está cercado de riscos consideráveis.

Os ativos podres receberam uma nova denominação, deixando de ser problemáticos (o “troubled”, do TARP) para se tornarem “ativos herdados” (“legacy assets”), em uma clara conotação de que o futuro não será igual ao passado. O plano para as parcerias público-privadas divide-se em duas partes: uma para os empréstimos hipotecários e outra para os ativos securitizados. Na primeira, o banco escolhe o pacote de ativos que irá vender e o FDIC define o grau de alavancagem do fundo que irá comprar estes ativos, podendo este chegar a um máximo de 6 para 1, isto é, US$ 6 de dívida garantida pelo FDIC para cada US$ 1 investido de capital. Definidos o pacote de ativos e o grau de alavancagem do fundo, é conduzido um leilão com os investidores interessados, onde o lance mais alto leva os ativos. O capital do fundo é então financiado metade pelo investidor privado e metade pelo Tesouro. O exemplo a seguir, inspirado no Fact Sheet do Tesouro, ilustra o funcionamento do mecanismo:

1. Banco define o pacote de ativos que quer vender;
2. FDIC define o grau de alavancagem; suponha que este seja de 6:1.
3. Ativos vão a leilão e o lance mais alto é de Y unidades monetárias.
4. Dado o grau de alavancagem, o FDIC garante a dívida de (6/7)*Y unidades monetárias do fundo.
5. O investidor privado e o Tesouro dividem a capitalização do fundo, de (1/7)*(1/2)*Y unidades monetárias para cada um.

Isto significa que com US$ 1 o investidor consegue comprar até US$ 14 de ativos, dado o subsídio do governo (a dívida garantida mais a capitalização do Tesouro). Com este desenho, o investidor privado é sempre responsável por, no mínimo, 1/14 do valor do leilão, o que inibe o incentivo de sobrevalorizar o pacote de ativos oferecido diante do subsídio do governo (equivalente a, no máximo, 13/14 do valor do leilão). Por outro lado, como o banco pode rejeitar a venda caso julgue o preço do leilão insuficiente, e como há um problema severo de assimetria de informação (isto é, os investidores não sabem a real qualidade dos ativos oferecidos) ele tem o incentivo de se desfazer primeiramente dos ativos piores, que é exatamente o que se pretende para restaurar a confiança.

O grande risco, no entanto, é que o subsídio do governo não seja suficiente para alinhar a demanda e a oferta pelos ativos de pior qualidade do sistema. A figura abaixo ilustra o ponto.

Figura 1

No momento, o mercado para os ativos de qualidade duvidosa não está funcionando, tal que não existem preços aos quais compradores estejam dispostos a comprar e vendedores estejam simultaneamente dispostos a vender. Os subsídios do governo podem ser, portanto, interpretados como uma tentativa de deslocar para cima a curva de demanda dos investidores privados. Caso não sejam suficientes para alinhar a demanda e a oferta de tal forma que um preço de equilíbrio passe a existir, os ativos piores continuarão nos balanços dos bancos, e a limpeza intencionada terá falhado.

O plano para os empréstimos hipotecários é complementado por um plano separado para os ativos securitizados, dada a natureza distinta dos dois tipos de ativos. Segundo o Fact Sheet do Tesouro, neste caso os gestores interessados devem submeter propostas que serão avaliadas pelas autoridades e que, caso aceitas, permitirão que o gestor privado comece o processo de marketing e vendas do fundo de ativos. Para cada US$ 1 de capital privado levantado, o Governo então disponibiliza US$ 1 de equity e mais um montante de dívida, financiado tanto pelo Tesouro quanto pelo Fed através do TALF, o novo dispositivo que agora passará a tratar também dos ativos herdados. Desta forma, se o gestor for capaz de levantar Y de capital privado, por exemplo, o tamanho do fundo poderá ser substancialmente maior, com mais Y de capital do Tesouro, X (a definir) de dívida do Tesouro, e Z (a definir) de dívida do Fed via TALF. Os riscos de que o fundo acabe por absorver os ativos de qualidade “menos pior”, deixando o lixo inequívoco nos balanços das instituições, são análogos aos analisados acima (pode-se usar a mesma figura para pensar no mercado de ativos securitizados).

Quais, então, são as grandes vantagens do plano? Por um lado, se os ativos hoje considerados como podres tiverem de fato algum valor residual, a iniciativa delineada pelo Tesouro estabelece chances concretas de que se consiga limpar os balanços (com adoçantes, sinos e apitos) sem onerar indevidamente os contribuintes, e impondo alguma punição às instituições (as chicotadas), já que os ativos que forem comprados terão um desconto considerável. Junto com os testes de estresse e as recapitalizações necessárias, o plano detalhado hoje representa o esforço de maior substância, e portanto com maiores possibilidades de sucesso, desde a eclosão da crise em 2007.

O grande risco é que não seja suficiente para limpar completamente o balanço dos bancos, caso uma parcela importante dos ativos herdados não tenha valor residual algum. Esta hipótese é bem menos extrema do que aparenta à primeira vista, sobretudo quando se considera que há quase dois anos que os bancos estão em situação periclitante e que a economia americana (e global) está atravessando uma profunda recessão.

Mas, mesmo neste caso, o plano poderá ter repercussões positivas. Se as instituições conseguirem livrar-se de uma parte significativa da podridão, deixando nos balanços apenas o que há de mais putrefato, o esforço de recapitalização e reestruturação financeira do governo terá sido facilitado, o que pode contribuir para a restauração da confiança e a recomposição mais rápida das redes de crédito. Os sinos, os apitos, os adoçantes, e as chicotadas são, portanto, mais do que uma simples intervenção coméstica. E isso é uma grande notícia.

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