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Monica Baumgarten de Bolle
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A Violenta Contração da Indústria Brasileira

06.03.09 6:31 pm
Embora o governo tenha preferido enfatizar a modesta “recuperação” de 2,1% da atividade industrial em janeiro na comparação com dezembro, o fato é que o indicador de produção física está agora no mesmo nível de meados de 2004. As fortíssimas quedas de dois dígitos de dezembro e janeiro eliminaram os ganhos dos últimos 4 anos, revelando a dimensão da recessão industrial em andamento que alguns ainda preferem negar.

Na comparação com janeiro do ano passado, o indicador da indústria com ajuste sazonal sofreu uma queda de 15%. Fazendo algumas hipóteses razoáveis para a evolução do PIB agrícola e para o PIB de serviços, e utilizando o IPF como proxy do PIB industrial, os resultados de janeiro já seriam consistentes com uma retração do PIB no primeiro trimestre (na comparação com o trimestre imediatamente anterior – ver Comentário Extra de Conjuntura 03/09 para os detalhes). Ou seja, para que o PIB ficasse apenas estagnado no primeiro trimestre, seria necessário que a variação mensal da atividade industrial em fevereiro e março fosse de 12% e 10%, respectivamente, algo difícil de acreditar.

Por que as repercussões da crise sobre a atividade industrial estão sendo tão nefastas? Como já discutimos neste blog e em artigos para a Carta Galanto, a vítima mais vísivel da disfuncionalidade dos mecanismos de crédito é o comércio mundial. Com o colapso do último trimestre, o comércio voltou aos níveis do início de 2007, arrastando a atividade industrial no mundo inteiro, inclusive no Brasil, que beneficiara-se até recentemente da pujança dos fluxos externos de bens e serviços.

A outra vítima visível da crise externa é a China. Não é por outra razão que tem sido a fonte de arroubos otimistas e pessimistas, como os que marcaram o início da semana. A China, como todos sabemos, é importante para o Brasil. De fato, a correlação entre a atividade industrial brasileira e os fluxos comerciais da China aumentou significativamente nos últimos dois anos (figura 1).

Figura 1

Diante disso, a não ser que a China cresça muito acima da meta anunciada das autoridades de 8%, algo que parece impossível diante dos problemas que enfrentam os países que compõem a fonte de demanda por seus produtos, é difícil ficar otimista com as perspectivas para a atividade no Brasil. Mesmo com a manutenção do ritmo de flexibilização da política monetária.

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