Terça-Feira, 07 de Setembro de 2010

Monica Baumgarten de Bolle

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Monica Baumgarten de Bolle
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A Grande Aberração e o Retorno da Imoderação

20.02.09 4:58 pm
De acordo com a definição da Wikipedia, a Grande Moderação “foi uma denominação as vezes utilizada para descrever o aparente fim da era de alta volatilidade econômica”, sobretudo nos EUA. Notem o emprego do verbo “ser” no pretérito no verbete da definição. Segundo a enciclopédia virtual, isso se justifica pois “a validade do conceito como caracterização de uma mudança permanente tem sido questionada pela crise financeira de 2007-2008” (Wikipedia, The Great Moderation). A invalidade é um fato inegável diante das extremas e incessantes flutuações nas variáveis financeiras e reais; e também porque a chamada era da Grande Moderação pode ter sido uma notável aberração histórica...(figura 1).

Figura 1

Em seu livro “A Era da Turbulência” lançado em 2007, Alan Greenspan, em um raríssimo exemplo de péssimo timing na sua carreira de homem público, expôs a tese de que o mundo, e a economia americana em particular, tornara-se permanentemente mais resiliente. Sua proposição partia da observação de que apesar dos inúmeros choques sofridos pela economia global nas últimas duas décadas (a “turbulência” do título), como o colapso das bolsas em 1987, as crises dos países emergentes e a quebra do LTCM nos anos 90, o estouro da bolha dot.com no início dos anos 2000, e os ataques terroristas de 11 de setembro de 2001, o mundo não passara por uma séria recessão, não vivenciara uma severa crise econômica, e não sofrera grandes choques inflacionários.

Passados alguns meses da publicação da obra reflexiva de Greenspan, o mundo aprendeu a duras penas que a Grande Moderação se deu às custas de uma grande imoderação no tratamento do risco e do seu corolário, a extensão de crédito e liquidez. A diminuição da volatilidade foi interpretada, erroneamente, como a domesticação do risco, levando ao desprezo de um conceito ainda mais intangível e pernicioso, a incerteza. Parafraseando as notórias expressões do ex-Secretário de Defesa Donald Rumsfeld, o risco é um “known unknown”, no sentido em que é possível atribuir probabilidades a certos estados da natureza e mensurá-lo, embora muitas vezes com uma margem de erro considerável. Já a incerteza é um “unknown unknown”, e, portanto, imensurável, logo indomável. O resultado é que as imoderações no tratamento do risco e da incerteza, que arruinaram os mecanismos de crédito, estão agora se refletindo nas flutuações exageradas das principais varíáveis macroeconômicas, como a atividade, a inflação, e o emprego (figuras 2, 3 e 4).

Figura 2

Figura 3

Figura 4

Nassim Taleb, um dos nomes mais citados da atualidade junto com Nouriel Roubini, chama de “arrogância epistêmica” a tendência humana de fazer asserções sobre fenômenos desconhecidos (diga-se que ele sofre do mesmo mal, apesar de seus livros “Fooled by Randomness” e o mais famoso “Black Swan” serem fantásticos e divertidos “tours de force” intelectuais). A crise atual deixou isso em grande evidência ao desmoralizar completamente as teses dos novos paradigmas, propostos por Greenspan e outros.

Nas palavras do grande matemático Benoît Mandelbrot, “quando as condições metereológicas mudam subitamente, ninguém acredita que as leis da física se alteraram; similarmente, quando os mercados atravessam brutais episódios de turbulência, também não acredito que suas regras fundamentais mudaram”. O mesmo vale para a economia como um todo. O problema é que suas regras fundamentais ainda são desconhecidas devido à enorme complexidade nas interações e interconexões dos sistemas econômicos.

No entanto, isto não quer dizer que a teoria econômica seja inútil. Ela é apenas inadequada para tratar de eventos atípicos como a atual crise, assim como as leis de Newton não foram suficientes para explicar fenômenos extremos como a implosão das estrelas (o que foi feito séculos mais tarde com a teoria geral da relatividade de Einstein). É por intuir esta realidade que os mercados manifestam-se com crescente descrença diante dos pacotes de estímulo econômico e dos anúncios de salvamento financeiro, pois não basta simplesmente “jogar dinheiro” no problema. É necessário reconstruir a complexa rede de interligações financeiras, o que nenhum governo, nem mesmo o de Obama com sua equipe brilhante, será capaz de fazer sozinho.

Mas nem tudo é razão para a desesperança. Por mais abstrusos que sejam os sistemas complexos, eles exibem uma enorme capacidade de auto-organização, à exemplo das metafóricas pilhas de areia e do funcionamento dos ecossistemas. Portanto, talvez o melhor papel para os governos na resolução desta crise seja o de refrear o instinto natural de imoderação, permitindo que a intrincada dinâmica de auto-ajuste dos sistemas complexos funcione, deixando-nos novamente somente à beira do caos, e não emaranhados nele.

Voltarei a escrever no blog depois do Carnaval.

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